It Ain't Got That Swing

"The sorting of American politics into semipermanent, warring camps unfolded over decades. But the red-blue map that first came into public consciousness during the 2000 election created a searing impression of a cultural divide between a Democratic Party rooted in the coasts and upper Midwest and a Republican Party dominating the old Confederacy, Appalachia, and the Mountain West. Smidt points out that the jarring events of George W. Bush's first [term]—a recession, a terrorist attack, a war in Iraq—failed to dislodge the hardening partisan loyalties. 'After having gone through a recession and a war,' he writes, 'pure independents were more stable in their party support across 2000–04 than strong partisans were across 1972–76 and about as stable as strong partisans across 1956–60.' The partisan voter of a generation ago switched parties more frequently than today's independent voter."

In New York, Jonathan Chait talks about the decline of swing voters.