The Third Scenario

"The problem with the current U.S. debate about China is that, in public at least, political, business and financial leaders tend to talk almost exclusively about the Soothing Scenario. Some critics of our China policy warn about the Upheaval Scenario. But the Third Scenario gets far less attention — even though it is perhaps the most likely. After all, China's authoritarian political system is the status quo, and there are powerful forces at work to prevent any far-reaching change in it."

In the Los Angeles Times, James Mann contemplates China's future.